New Geopolitics Research

New Geopolitics Research

Analyzing the Geopolitical Consequences of Afghan Refugees in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
mahmood rashnavaz 1
saleh salavarzi zadeh 2
1 Candidate in International Law, UAE Branch Islamic Azad University, UAE.
2 Ph.D. in International Relations and Lecturer, Abdanan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilam, Iran.
10.22034/nrpg.2026.2081021.1068
Abstract
The massive migration of Afghans to Iran, one of the world’s longest-running displacement crises, is rooted in Afghanistan’s ongoing conflict, economic instability, and environmental challenges. Iran has hosted millions of Afghan refugees and asylum seekers for more than four decades, and before the massive deportations of 2025, their population was estimated to be around 4.5 to 6 million. This phenomenon has created legal, economic, social, cultural, and psychological complexities. The research question is: What opportunities and threats has the massive and sometimes illegal presence of Afghan refugees created for Iran? The research is based on the hypothesis that this migration brings economic and cultural opportunities, but also exacerbates security and economic threats. This descriptive-analytical study, using a SWOT model, examines the policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Its innovation is the integration of the SWOT model with international refugee law (1951 Convention, 1967 Protocol) and the integration of psychological-social-cultural dimensions into opportunities and threats. The findings show that migrants provide cheap labor in key sectors, create cultural richness from shared bonds, and offer social resilience. However, pressure on resources, various political-economic tensions, mental health problems, and cultural mismatch have posed serious threats to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Keywords
Afghanistan
Iran
refugees
international refugee law
Swot
migrants
زندی ناوگران، لیلا و دیگران . (1401). درک مهاجران از فاصلۀ اجتماعی با ایرانیان: پژوهش کیفی در بین مهاجران افغانستانی. پژوهش های راهبردی مسائل اجتماعی، 11(4)، 1-26.
عباسی شوازی، محمدجلال، صادقی، رسول و محمدی، عبدالله. (1395) . «ماندن یا مهاجرت دوباره مهاجران بازگشته افغانستانی از ایران به کشورشان و عوامل تعیین‌کننده آن»، فصلنامه مطالعات جمعیتی، 2(1)، 150-119.
کرمی، جهانگیر و سلاورزی‌زاده، صالح .(1402). تحلیل «راهبردی - پیش‌تدبیرانه» سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در قبال ترکمنستان. پژوهش های روابط بین‌الملل، 13(2), 171-202.
محسنی، رقیه، بذرافکن، لیل، شکرپور، نسرین(2024). شناسایی مؤلفه‌های کیفیت زندگی سلامت در اردوگاه پناهندگان افغان در استان فارس: یک مطالعه کیفی. مجله علوم سلامت ایران، 12 (3): 185-194.
Altındağ, O., Bakış, O., & Rozo, S. (2020). Blessing or burden? Impacts of refugees on businesses and the informal economy. Journal of Development Economics, 146(12), 10-20.
Anh, Q. H. (2024). Are ‘climate refugees’ compatible with the 1951 Refugee Convention?. https://www.e-ir.info/2024/08/13/are-climate-refugees-compatible-with-the-1951-refugee-convention/.
Bareach, K. U. (2021). Iran Afghanistan relationship in historical perspectives [Unpublished doctoral dissertation]. University of Balouchestan, Balouchestan.
Bavili, N. (2023). Analyzing Iran’s policies towards Afghan asylum seekers through the lenses of public choice theory. International Journal of Social Science and Human Research, 6(8), 4826–4832.
Bjerre Christensen, J. (2016). Guests or trash: Iran's precarious policies towards the Afghan refugees in the wake of sanctions and regional war. (11 ed.) Danish Institute for International Studies. DIIS Report1, 12(2), 23-38.
Bojorquez-Chapela, I., Flórez-García, V., Calderón-Villarreal, A., & Fernández-Niño, J. A. (2020). Health policies for international migrants: A comparison between Mexico and Colombia. Health Policy OPEN, 1, Article 100003,12(7), 123-145. 
Chiarenza, A., Dauvrin, M., Chiesa, V., Baatout, S., & Verrept, H. (2019). Supporting access to healthcare for refugees and migrants in European countries under particular migratory pressure. BMC Health Services Research, 19(513), 23-35.
Crawley, H., & Kaytaz, E. S. (2022). Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Afghan Migration to Europe From Iran. Social Inclusion, 10(3), 4-14. 
Elnakib, S., Jackson, C., Lalani, U., Nour, S., & Spiegel:(2024). How integration of refugees into national health systems became a global priority: A qualitative policy analysis. Conflict and Health, 31(12), 12-30.
Esses, V. M. (2017). Migration. The SAGE Encyclopedia of Political Behavior,295),380-388.
Fararu News Website. (June 13, 2024). Pezeshkian’s key decision regarding Afghan migrants in Iran. Available at: https://fararu.com/fa/news. [in Persian]. 
Habibi, D. H. (2025, March 11). Between inclusion and exclusion: Iran's selective instrumentalization of Afghan migrants. https://www.clingendael.org/publication/between-inclusion-and-exclusion-irans-selective-instrumentalization-afghan-migrants.
Hathaway, J. C., & Gammeltoft-Hansen, T. (2015). Non-refoulement in a world of cooperative deterrence. Columbia Journal of Transnational Law, 53(2), 235–284.
Herve, N. (2018). Migration, displacement, and education: Building bridges, not walls. Inclusion of Afghan refugees in the national education system of Iran and Pakistan. Global Education Monitoring Report. UNESCO.
Hoseini, M., & Jahan, D. M. (2022). How do shared experiences of economic shocks impact refugees and host communities? Evidence from Afghan refugees in Iran (Policy Research Working Paper,35(23),  23-34.
Human Rights Watch. (1991). Afghanistan: The forgotten war: Human rights abuses and violations of the laws of war since the Soviet withdrawal (Report No. 810).
Jalali, M. (2024). Narratives of pride: Afghan migrant laborers in Iran. Comparative Migration Studies, 12(39), 45-67.
Kakar, R. (2026). Forced returns of Afghan refugees risk triggering a humanitarian crisis – OpEd. Eurasia Review. https://www.eurasiareview.com/26012026-forced-returns-of-afghan-refugees-risk-triggering-a-humanitarian-crisis-oped.
Karami, Jahangir, & Salavarzizadeh, Saleh. (2023). "Strategic-Proactive Analysis of the Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards Turkmenistan". International Relations Researches, 13(2), 171-202. [in Persian]. 
Khatan, P., & Krishan, J. (2022). The obligation of non-refoulement and its erga omnes partes character. Harvard International Law Journal. https://journals.law.harvard.edu/ilj/2022/12/the-obligation-of-non-refoulement-and-its-erga-omnes-partes-character/.
Kuschminder, K., & Dora, M. (2009). Migration in Afghanistan: History, current trends and future prospects.
Mashwani, N. (2025). Displaced and forgotten: Afghan refugees in Iran. https://csspr.uol.edu.pk/refugees/.
McDonnell, N. (2023). Falling through the protection gaps: Inappropriate protection of climate displaced persons in the international refugee legal structure. The Transnational Human Rights Review, 10, 1–22.
Ministry of Disaster Management. (2021). Drought [خشکسالی]. https://andma.gov.af/dr/%D8%AE%D8%B4%DA%A9%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C.
Mjaku, G. (2020). Strategic management and strategic leadership. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 10(8), 913–918.
Modrzejewska-Leśniewska, J. (2020). Afghan migrants in Iran in modern times. Studia z Polityki Publicznej, 7(4), 9–30.
Moezzi, S. M. I., Etemadi, M., Lankarani, K. B., & Joulaei, H. (2024). Barriers and facilitators to primary healthcare utilization among immigrants and refugees of low and middle-income countries: A scoping review. Global Health, 20(75), 67-80.
Moghadam, A., & Jadali, S. (2022). Immigration and revolution in Iran: Asylum politics and state consolidation. REMHU: Revista Interdisciplinar da Mobilidade Humana, 29, 21–41. [in Persian] 
Mohammad, J. A.-Sh., Diana, G., Gholamreza, J., Mohammadian, H., & Rasoul, S. (2005). A study of Afghans living in Mashad. EC Stifting Vluchteling, UNHCR
Mohseni, R., Bazrafkan, L., & Shokrpour, N. (2024). Identification of the components of health quality of life in Afghan refugees' UN camp in Fars Province, Iran: A qualitative study. Iranian Journal of Health Sciences, 12(3), 185–194. [in Persian] 
Moradian, Davoud. (1404). The Crisis of Afghan Migration and the Need to Revisit Iran’s Policies. Shargh Newspaper. https://sharghdaily.com/.
Mujda, W. (2003). Afghanistan ve Panj Sal Seleteyi Taliban [Afghanistan and five years of Taliban rule]. Tehran: Nay Yayınları.
Nasr Esfahani, Arash. (2024). Arash Nasr Esfahani, sociologist and researcher: The social issues depicted in the image of migration threats exacerbate our challenges with Afghan migrants.
Omer, S. K. (2018). SWOT analysis - The tool of organizations stability (KFC) as a case study. Journal of Process Management – New Technologies, International, 6(4), 27–34.
Owen, C. H., & Scougall, B. (2025). Climate change and forced displacement: A case for refugee status.
Patel, P., Bernays, S., Dolan, H., Muscat, D. M., & Trevena, L. (2021). Communication experiences in primary healthcare with refugees and asylum seekers: A literature review and narrative synthesis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(4), 44-69.
Qasemy, A. (2025). Securitization, exploitation and temporization of Afghan immigrants and refugees in Iran. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 8(12), 983–992.
Qehaja, A., Berisha, K., Enver, P., & Justina, S. (2017). Strategic management tools and techniques usage: A qualitative review. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 65(2), 585–600
Rajai, B. (2009). The politics of refugee policy in post-revolutionary Iran. Middle East Journal, 54(1), 44–63.
Refugees, United Nations High Commissioner for. (2024). Figures at a glance. UNHCR. https://www.unhcr.org/about-unhcr/who-we-are/figures-glance.
Robert Bosch Stiftung and Migration Policy Institute. (2021). The Refugee Convention at 70: What does the future hold in an increasingly bordered world?. https://www.bosch-stiftung.de/en/story/refugee-convention-70-what-does-future-hold-increasingly-bordered-world.
Ruiz, H. A. (2004). Afghanistan: Conflict and displacement 1978 to 2001. https://www.fmreview.org.
Sadeghi, R. (2005). Study of Afghans living in Mashad. European Commission (EC) and Stichting Vluchteling, UNHCR.
Sadeghi,R. and Abbasi-Shavazi,M. J. (2016). Return Migration to Afghanistan or Staying in Iran among Afghan Youth. Iranian Population Studies, 2(1), 119-150.
Safdar, M., Chahar Mahali, A., & Scott, J. W. (2023). Border security, migration and state stability in West and South Asia. Journal of Borderlands Studies, 38(2), 211–225.
Sajjadi, A. (2018). Siyaseti Harici Afganistan [Afghanistan’s foreign policy]. Kabul: Vaje Yayınları.
Schöch, R. (2008). Afghan refugees in Pakistan during the 1980s: Cold War politics and registration practice. New Issues in Refugee Research (157), 1–17.
Shvangiradze, T. (2023). 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan: The beginning of the USSR’s end. https://www.thecollector.com/soviet-ussr-invasion-afghanistan/.
Siavoshi, S. (2024). Afghans in Iran: The state and the working of immigration policies. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 51(1), 209–223.
The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. (2025). Differentiation between migrants and refugees. https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Issues/Migration/GlobalCompactMigration/MigrantsAndRefugees.pdf.
UNHCR. (2021). Şiddet artarken Afgan mülteciler İran’a ulaşıyor [Afghan refugees reach Iran as violence escalates]. https://www.unhcr.org/tr/30095-afghan-refugees-reach-iran-as-violence-escalates.html.
UNHCR. (2025a). Refugees in Iran. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/ir/refugees-iran.
Verduijn, S. (2020). Destination unknown: Afghans on the move in Turkey [Bilinmeyen yön: Türkiye’de ilerleyen Afganlar]. MMC Middle East Research Summary.
Victoria, M., Wright, J. D., Clint, T., & Hamilton, L. K. (2017). Immigration. The SAGE Encyclopedia of Political Behavior,12(5), 380–388.
Yellinek, R. (2021, September 24). The politics and geopolitics of the Afghan refugee crisis. Middle East Institute. https://mei.edu/publication/politics-and-geopolitics-afghan-refugee-crisis.
Zandi-Navgran, L. , Askari-Nodoushan, A. , Afrasiabi, H. , Sadeghi, R. and Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J. (2022). Migrants’ Perception of Social Distance with Iranians: A Qualitative Study among Afghan Immigrants. Strategic Research on Social Problems, 11(4), 1-26. 
New Geopolitics Research
Volume 2, Issue 2 - Serial Number 4
January 2026
Pages 131-149